“The Recession Is Over” – GDP Estimates Show July GDP Only 4% Less than Peak in February

“The Recession Is Over” – GDP Estimates Show July GDP Only 4% Less than Peak in February

More on the US Recovery

Yesterday we reported that the Atlanta FED is reporting that the 3rd Quarter of 2020 will end up with the greatest increase in GDP in US history:

Atlanta Fed Forecasts the Largest GDP Growth Rate Increase in US History Coming in the 3rd Quarter 2020

One reader, Tom Blumer, shared with us some additional information related to the Atlanta FED’s expectation that the 3rd Quarter will be the greatest quarter in US history.

Although not as high as the Atlanta FED, Moody’s is now showing 26.7% GDP increase in the 3rd Quarter GDP which is still easily the greatest quarterly increase in GDP in US history.

Another company named IHS Markit, which bought Macroeconomic Advisers a few years ago, tracks MONTHLY GDP and is considered the best at doing so in the business. According to Tom, their numbers are astonishing:

According to IHS Markit, July 2020’s GDP was 18,556 billion compared with the all time high 19,400 billion in February 2020.  This result shows that by the end of July the US was already nearly back to its all-time high GDP from February – the July GDP was 96% that of February!

Tom shares, “This is extraordinarily good news that everyone is ignoring, and I don’t think even Trump or his administration fully appreciate it.”

According to Newsbusters:

A jaw-dropping new economic report from Axios reinforced a concept the liberal media never seem to get: never underestimate America or President Donald Trump’s economy.

In a story headlined, “Wall Street: Recession is over,” Axios reported that U.S. economic activity is “going to grow more sharply in the third quarter of this year than during any other quarter in history.” Here’s the kicker: “The recession is over, according to Wall Street, with current forecasts showing sustained economic growth through 2021 and beyond.” More importantly, according to Axios, “the continued prevalence of the pandemic doesn’t seem to have crimped economic growth.” [Emphasis added.]

The FED shared this about the current state of the economy:

The path of the economy will depend significantly on the course of the virus. The ongoing public health crisis will continue to weigh on economic activity, employment, and inflation in the near term, and poses considerable risks to the economic outlook over the medium term.

Blumer suggests based on the dwindling numbers of deaths and hospitalizations due to COVID-19, the FED should have said:

The path of the economy will depend significantly on whether states appropriately open up their economies in response to the declining impact of the coronavirus.”

Regardless the Recession is over!

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